Friday, September 23rd 2016
U.S pork exports in July were 403 million pounds, almost 2% above July 2015. Positive year-over-year exports were made possible largely through shipments to China/Hong Kong. The table below shows that exports to China/Hong Kong helped offset lower shipments to Japan and Mexico. China/Hong Kong accounted for 15% of U.S. pork exports in July, versus 9% a year ago. Losses in Mexico’s and Japan’s year-over-year shares were picked up by China/Hong Kong in July. The United States holds a 14% share of Chinese imports. European pork products have an advantage over U.S. pork due to the depreciated value of the euro and to the generally low level of pork prices in Europe since the imposition of the Russian ban on European pork products in January 2014. Due largely to strong exports, European pork prices have tightened, creating opportunity for U.S. pork products in Asian markets in particular. As the U.S. pork industry enters the seasonal period of highest production, the value of the U.S. exchange rate appears to be trending lower vis-à-vis the currency values of its major trading partners. Attractive late third-quarter and fourth-quarter pork prices, together with an improved exchange rate, should support pork export volumes. Pork exports in the third quarter are expected to be 1.3 billion pounds, almost 7% higher than a year ago. Fourth-quarter exports are expected to be 1.4 billion pounds, almost 10% above fourth-quarter 2015.